The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the first half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an impression privately or the full total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win in case you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. New88 Vip -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Therefore, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the full total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.