There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some kind of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that may be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Now here in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. This is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the long run. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.