There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that may be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. This is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. 8us between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.