"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he'll put the same amount on the second game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the second game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to fill in the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
888b for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out of the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."