"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the second game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to complete the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
MB66 can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."